Are The New England Patriots Impossibly Good?

This week, Heather, Susan, and I continued to frame our readings from a statistics perspective. We found an informational article from Harvard Sports Analysis titled “No, CBS Sports, The Patriots Have Not Found an Edge on Coin Flips.” This article would work well in a statistics class because it discusses probability and independence. It also presents calculations for the probability of multiple different outcomes.

In November 2015, Harvard Sports Analysis published an article to address the claim that the New England Patriots were “winning coin flips at ‘an impossible rate’” (Chase, 2015). The author, Harrison Chase, believes that “accusing anyone of cheating at coin flips is absurd,” so he goes on to prove them wrong with probability (Chase, 2015). At the time of publication, the Patriots had won 19 of the last 25 coin flips. In football (and most sports, really), the coin toss occurs at the beginning of the game. The captain of the visiting team calls either “heads” or “tails” while the coin is in the air. If he is correct, his team gets to choose which team goes first, which end zone his team defends, and which direction players go to score points (Rookie Road, 2019). The team who wins the coin toss controls how the game is organized, which gives that team a perceived advantage. The probability of the Patriots winning at least 19 of 25 coin flips is 0.73%. However, there are 32 teams in the National Football League (NFL). The probability of one or more of these teams winning at least 19 out of 25 coin flips is about 20%. The author also points out that it is misleading to choose 25 games out of nearly 250 games that Bill Belichick has coached (at the time). Looking at all of Belichick’s games, there is a 38.71% chance that a sequence of 25 games will have 19 or more heads. If the Patriots call "heads," it is very likely that they will win the coin toss. The bottom line is that the Patriots are not cheating, and CBS Sports’ headline is misleading.

Students need some background knowledge before reading the text. This includes basic knowledge of football games, coin tosses, the New England Patriots, and their coach. One thing that might confuse students is the passage where the author talks about Patriots coach, Bill Belichick. The author talks about Belichick without stating that he is the team's coach, so he is assuming that the reader is already familiar with the team. If I was to use this article for a statistics class years from now, Belichick might be long gone and students will have no idea who he is. Especially because Baltimore is so far away from Boston. This article is from Harvard University, which is in New England, so the Patriots are going to be the most popular football team in that area. Students should also be aware of “deflategate” because it is mentioned in the article. Deflategate was a huge Patriots controversy in early 2015, so I might need to give students an overview of the situation if I want to assign this reading in the future.

On the surface, this article might seem like it is only addressing the NFL controversy. However, it also illustrates the importance of interpreting data appropriately. The CBS sports article claimed that the Patriots were winning at an “impossible” rate because the probability of them winning at least 19 out of 25 coin flips was relatively small. However, further statistical analysis proves that while this occurrence is unlikely, it is not impossible. In statistics, it is important to not just take things at face value. Just because something seems impossible or unlikely, does not mean it is.

The author uses a very informal tone. However, he is obviously still a little angry that a huge media outlet would insinuate that his beloved Patriots cheated. He even states that “with Deflategate out of the way the media is looking for something to accuse the Patriots of” (Chase, 2015). In fact, “common sense… will tell you that the Patriots have not been cheating by winning coin flips at an ‘impossible’ rate” (Chase, 2015). Chase is a Patriots fan and wrote the article to inform non-Patriots fans.

For this assignment, Heather instructed me to use the “say something” strategy. This technique requires students to “work in pairs to read a text, stopping at designated points to turn and Say Something to their partners” (McLaughlin, 2015). “Say something” works well with informational text. Students can “make a comment, ask a question, make a prediction, clarify a point, or make a connection” (McLaughlin, 2015). I can teach this strategy to my students by explaining the importance of monitoring and clarifying the text. As a comprehension strategy, monitoring/clarifying “involves constantly asking ourselves ‘Does this make sense?’ and adapting strategic processes to make the message clear” (McLaughlin, 2015). After I have introduced the technique, I will ask a student to demonstrate it with me. The end of each paragraph will be a designated stopping point, so I will start by reading the first paragraph aloud. Once I have finished the paragraph, I will start the “say something” technique by asking my partner “What does the author mean by ‘an impossible rate?’” When I first read through the article, I wondered what someone would consider “impossible” in this context. Technically, an event is not impossible unless it has a probability of 0. I also wondered how many coin flips were taken into consideration. If the sample size is small, a relatively large amount of wins does not mean the coin flips are rigged. After I have demonstrated the “’say something" technique with my partner for the first few paragraphs, I will read the next paragraph aloud and let students work with their own partners to “say something.” Then, I will set the class free to read the rest of the article and pause after each paragraph to make comments and ask questions. Once students have completed the article, I will ask them to talk to their partners about some of the main questions, comments, predictions, and connections that they noted while they were reading the text. Then, we will regroup as a class and share some of the key takeaways.

References

Chase, H. (2015, November 5). “No, CBS Sports, The Patriots Have Not Found an Edge on Coin Flips.” Harvard Sports Analysis. Retrieved from http://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2015/11/nocbs/?fbclid=IwAR0cARYA3xSXyija98hMJTZ70NGy1VFZG4_XayKdGBuvgmVSrenL1eMvruc

McLaughlin, M. (2015). Content Area Reading: Teaching and Learning for College and Career Readiness. Pearson Education.

Rookie Road. (2019). “Football Coin Toss.” Retrieved from https://www.rookieroad.com/football/basics/coin-toss/